A modest proposal
There’s a simple solution to the Northern Ireland conundrum. Hold onto your hats
I wrote here about the trade and co-operation deal between the UK and EU that was finalised on Christmas Eve. I observed that while it does indeed deliver Brexit by restoring the UK’s ability to govern itself as an independent nation and freeing it from EU control — a remarkable achievement — it has also created some bad trade-offs and hostages to fortune and left some vital issues unresolved.
One of these is the Northern Ireland Protocol. This was created as part of the Withdrawal Agreement, which Boris Johnson shamefully agreed as the terms on which the UK left the EU almost one year ago and which remains a troubling trade-off from an earlier stage in the long drawn-out Brexit agony.
This Protocol left Northern Ireland aligned with the EU’s internal market, thus creating a virtual customs barrier down the middle of the Irish Sea and separating Northern Ireland for these purposes from mainland Britain.
To that extent, it fractured the integrity of the UK. EU officials will be in Northern Ireland to police the operation of these EU market rules there, under the authority of the European Court of Justice. While the UK has regained its sovereignty by freeing itself overall from European law and the ECJ, the residual EU presence in the province that defines the UK as the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is an unpalatable fudge.
This unacceptable development was made inevitable by the fact that the Republic of Ireland is part of the the EU and its single market. And goods are constantly traded between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
It was assumed that any consequent “hard” customs border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, which would have resulted from Northern Ireland leaving the ambit of the EU single market along with the rest of the UK, would jeopardise the 1998 Good Friday Agreement through which the campaign of Irish nationalist terrorism against Northern Ireland was brought to an end. So Northern Ireland — while legally included in the UK’s customs territory — remains aligned in practice with the EU’s single market rules.
No-one could think of a better way of resolving this conundrum. There is, however, a simple and satisfactory solution which has been ignored. Hold onto your hats. It is for the Irish Republic also to leave the EU.
Don’t all scream at once.
I first floated this suggestion here in 2017. This is what I wrote then:
The Republic of Ireland is intimately intertwined economically, historically, geographically and culturally with the UK. Brexit, which the Irish government never saw coming, therefore has huge implications for Ireland – for the worse as long as Ireland itself remains in the EU.
Ireland once got more out of the EU than it paid in. That ratio has now been reversed: it is now a net contributor. Once Britain exits the EU, Ireland will urgently need a free-trade deal with the UK, its main trading partner, as well as the continued free movement of peoples between Ireland and the UK. These arrangements are essential to avoid otherwise certain and large-scale damage to the Irish economy. They cannot be achieved once the UK exits the EU if Ireland remains signed up to it.
You can imagine the reaction to this at the time: overwhelming incredulity, scorn and derision. After all, if EU membership is regarded as a kind of secular religion then the Irish are supposedly among its highest priests.
The reason I wrote this, however, was a soundly-reasoned case to this effect made by a former Irish diplomat, Ray Bassett, who had been part of the Irish Government Talks Team during the Good Friday Agreement negotiations.
In this pamphlet, published in July 2017 by Policy Exchange, he argued that Ireland’s exit from the EU would benefit Ireland’s economy and would enable it to put Irish interests first. There were two reasons for this. First, the EU was now doing damage to Ireland and had turned from being its net benefactor into an increasing liability; and second, Ireland was so deeply connected to the UK that Brexit would hurt it badly unless Ireland made its own independent trade deal with Britain. Bassett wrote:
For Ireland, there is really no upside to Brexit. Officially, Ireland has already made its choice. The Irish Government remains determined to stick with what it calls “Team EU”… As outlined in the following sections, there is a very strong case for an alternative course. Namely, opting to remain with the United Kingdom in a customs and free trade area, while negotiating as favourable as possible trade and investment terms with the remaining 26 member states.
… The policy of placing all the Irish eggs in one basket (the EU) is making less sense every day. This policy of leaving it to Brussels seems so out of place with the national interest that it begs the question as to why the Irish are so determined to hold on to the EU apron strings. The answer lies in the way that the European Union has worked with Irish political and public service leadership over the years. Constant meetings in Brussels, involving ministers and senior officials, have made these groups much more Eurocentric than the population at large. Politicians and officials value their seats at the EU table. A similar effect was evident among UK officials leading up to the referendum. A compliant and generally supportive media, especially the influential Irish Times, has helped give the impression of a very pro-EU country. This Eurocentric view, however, does not permeate the general population.
While Ireland was benefitting financially from EU transfers, there was a general acceptance that the country and its citizens needed to be classified as good Europeans. However, there was never any deep pro-European identification - the connection was essentially based on material gain and not on any emotional or symbolic attachment. Once Ireland became wealthier and eventually a net contributor to the EU budget, attitudes became more measured and public support weakened.
… While relations with Britain, particularly since the period of Tony Blair’s prime ministership, have warmed, Ireland’s love affair with the EU appears to be going in the opposite direction. Initially, the connection to Europe was regarded as liberating, freeing up the country from its old obsession with Anglo-Irish relations and allowing for deeper new international connections.
However, such a feeling was very much of its time. Nowadays, Irish people instinctively have a much broader outlook on the world than their forbearers. They have lost much of the old colonial cultural cringe and don’t need to define themselves as simply not being British. On the other hand, there are growing complaints about Brussels interference and a feeling that EU membership is now actually a limiting factor. While the Irish public have grown more internationally aware in recent years, the Irish state’s profile in international relations has declined heavily as the country has simply followed the EU line on many specific issues.
… However, the real cornerstone of the British/Irish relationship is the connections between its peoples. Irish and British settlers have moved between the two islands for millennia and this continues to this day. It is vital for Ireland that this intimate relationship with Britain is maintained and that Irish people are able to work freely in Britain.
… At every level of society, there are huge interconnections between the two countries. The two countries share English as their main language, Ireland inherited its Westminster style government and public service from the British, as well as its use of common law, its university structure, etc. Having been joined together for so long in a single administrative unit, it would be extremely difficult to even enumerate the multiple linkages. Any impediment to these links, which are at all levels of society, would be extremely disruptive and, given their scale, almost impossible to calculate.
Although much has developed since this pamphlet was written, not least in last week’s UK-EU deal, Bassett’s points remain valid and he continues to argue the case for Ireland to leave the EU.
Moreover, public opinion in Ireland may move more in this direction. Ireland has been a net contributor to the EU since 2013; its per capita contributions to the EU’s Coronavirus Recovery Fund are the highest of any member state other than Luxembourg; according to Bassett, EU fishing fleets take the bulk of fish in Irish waters; and costs to Irish consumers of UK goods bought on line could now rise steeply.
The deep and enduring attachments across the Irish Sea meant that Ireland joined the EU in 1972 at the same time as the UK. Will Ireland now realise that Brexit needs to be followed by Irexit?
Unthinkable? Impossible? Off-the-wall ludicrous?
Wasn’t that also once said about the likely departure from the EU of a certain other country?
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